Prediction 2008

Since I don't have too much to say, I figured I'd write a little discussion about the 2008 election.

Here is my prediction:

McCain will win the general election.


Mind you, I don't want him to win; I will not vote for him nor support his campaign in any way.

But look at the situation the Democrats are in. It's Mid-April and they haven't picked a candidate yet. This fact has two implications that are relevant to our discussion. First, this means that all of the Democratic candidates' time, energy, and money is being spent attacking the other. Each candidate holds rallies, debates, luncheons - all aimed at proving why he or she is better than the other. Each candidate exhorts his or her followers to spread the word that the other candidate is full of garbage and not worthy of the nomination. And their supporters are picking up what the candidates are throwing. Supporters are emotionally invested in the campaign at this point, and are very vocal about their feelings for the other candidate. Most political articles online are followed by comments from readers, and these comments highlight that the supporters have bought into their candidate - most comments are filled with vitriol and bitterness. Once the Democrats select their candidate, are the loser's supporters expected to forget all their hate and anger? After being told for almost 10 months that Candidate X is bad, Candidate Y's supporters are expected to suddenly do an about face and sing X's praises?

I know the response to this is "They'll vote Democrat because they'd rather any Democrat in office than a Republican." But I have seen on message boards and in commentary, and heard from people that if the other candidate is nominated, they will vote 3rd party (or Republican) rather than vote for the other guy. Granted, the number of people who will actually do this is small, but even if it's 5% of the democratic vote, that's still a huge swing. Consider how close the 2000 and 2004 elections were. Can the democratic party afford to alienate even 1% of their constituents?

The second implication my earlier comment raises is that if both candidates are spending all their time attacking each other, who is attacking McCain? He can just sit back and take notes on what they're doing. In comparison to the two Democratic candidates, by doing nothing he can look pretty clean. He can solidify his position within the Republican Party and build a strong base for the general election. And once a Democratic nominee is chosen, he can start firing off attack after attack, and won't need to do much initial research. He can just sit back, collect more donations and save time and money until an opponent is selected, and then come out swinging with new and used attack material.

I know, you might think that once a candidate has defended his/her position on a given subject the matter is dropped. However, I just don't buy that. How many times did Obama have to defend his Rezcko (sic) connection? I am confident he'll have to do it again if he is nominated.



So it seems to me that neither Democratic candidate is doing their Party any good at this time. One of them would do well to step down for the good of the party. Neither will, of course, but the longer they prolong the decision, the more likely McCain is to win the general election.